MACROECONOMIC RESEARCH

Macroeconomic research prepares the macroeconomic forecasts on which the assessments of the other research units are based. Forecasts for gross domestic product growth, inflation rates, current account balances of payment and public sector budgets are produced for a large number of countries and regions.

The forecasts for the economies we track are underpinned with detailed assessments of economic, political and socio-economic developments (including the employment situation, demography, the development of incomes, sector trends, property markets, the financing situation and many more). For less prominent economies we make use of the forecasts and analyses published by international organisations or specialised research institutions.

The structure of the forecasts is geared to the largely standardised international regime of national accounts. Since these calculations are only published on a quarterly basis and with a considerable time lag, the forecasts are constantly reviewed with the help of indicators that are released very frequently (for example indicators for industrial output, incoming orders, foreign trade, various price indices and sentiment indicators for the corporate and consumer segment).

We attach particular importance to ensuring that the basic assumptions of the forecasts are logical and consistent. The performance of the commodity markets, central bank policy and the financial markets influence economic growth and are in turn influenced by it. Thanks to close cooperation throughout the entire Research division we make sure that a consistent overall picture is created.